Publications

The parliamentary elections on October 3 will take place against the backdrop of three challenges that are new for Latvia. The first is the weakening of the coalition-capable center: the United List (AS), led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, leads in the polls, but its most acceptable coalition partners are hovering near the electoral threshold or remain below it.

For several months, social media has been flooded with images of long queues at petrol stations and exploding fuel storage tanks – not only in the Persian Gulf, but also in Europe. These scenes are unfolding in Russia itself, one of the most energy-rich countries in the world. Many had grown accustomed to Ukrainian energy infrastructure being targeted during the Russian invasion. However, circumstances have shifted, and Russia now finds itself forced to defend against aerial strikes targeting its own critical infrastructure. This naturally raises key questions: what prompted this Ukrainian strategy, why focus on the oil sector, and what impact is this having on Russian energy?

The international system is undergoing a profound transformation characterized by intensifying geopolitical competition, weakening confidence in established institutions, and growing uncertainty regarding the future role of the United States. The relative stability that defined much of the post-1945 period is increasingly giving way to a more fragmented and contested strategic environment.

The discussion illustrates that U.S.-Russia relations have entered a period in which neither confrontation nor cooperation alone adequately describes reality. Strategic competition will remain the defining feature of the relationship, yet dialogue, deterrence, and selective cooperation (particularly on nuclear issues) will continue to be necessary.

The South Caucasus’ nations are increasingly asserting their agency in a region where, prior to 2022, Russia was an external power calling the shots for almost three decades. Situated at the crossroads of energy and transport routes that bridge the broader Caspian region and Europe, the region is moving towards more stability due to the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process.

Armenia has entered a distinct domestic and external context following the 7 June legislative elections.

The Euro-Atlantic security architecture is currently navigating a geopolitical tipping point, characterized by the return of high-intensity conflict to the continent and the crumbling of the international rules-based order.

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations will require progress beyond political and institutional reform. They also require resilient defence institutions, modern technological capabilities, and a national ecosystem that will be able to connect public authorities, the Armed Forces, academia, research, non-profit organisations, and industry.

Europe’s security environment is in the process of being drastically reconfigured because of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the related fears and doubts over the reliability of U.S. support and security guarantees.

On May 14, 2026, at Tesonet’s headquarters in Vilnius, the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center hosted a conversation with Alexander Stubb, President of the Republic of Finland.

Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections are taking place at a moment when the country’s internal exhaustion has coincided with a sharp rise in the foreign-policy significance of the campaign.

“Each new circle of confrontation with Russia causes surprise and disarray in the West, but this is usually not the result of any change of policy in Moscow. Consistent Russian state behaviours and demands can be traced not just to Soviet times but back to czarist foreign and domestic policy, and further to the structure and rules of Russian society. In this respect, what surprises some Western observers so much about Moscow’s current behaviour is simply Russia reverting to type.”