Publications

The international system is undergoing a profound transformation characterized by intensifying geopolitical competition, weakening confidence in established institutions, and growing uncertainty regarding the future role of the United States. The relative stability that defined much of the post-1945 period is increasingly giving way to a more fragmented and contested strategic environment.

The discussion illustrates that U.S.-Russia relations have entered a period in which neither confrontation nor cooperation alone adequately describes reality. Strategic competition will remain the defining feature of the relationship, yet dialogue, deterrence, and selective cooperation (particularly on nuclear issues) will continue to be necessary.

On May 14, 2026, at Tesonet’s headquarters in Vilnius, the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center hosted a conversation with Alexander Stubb, President of the Republic of Finland.

“Each new circle of confrontation with Russia causes surprise and disarray in the West, but this is usually not the result of any change of policy in Moscow. Consistent Russian state behaviours and demands can be traced not just to Soviet times but back to czarist foreign and domestic policy, and further to the structure and rules of Russian society. In this respect, what surprises some Western observers so much about Moscow’s current behaviour is simply Russia reverting to type.”