Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to escalate when it believes the costs are manageable. From the war in Georgia and the annexation of Crimea to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and increasingly frequent acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone incursions into NATO territory, Moscow continues to test the West’s resolve and red lines.
Yet NATO’s response remains largely shaped by restraint and the desire to avoid escalation. Does this approach actually deter Russia, or could excessive caution instead constrain the Alliance’s freedom of action and embolden the Kremlin to push the boundaries even further?
In his latest article, GSSC Chief Foreign Policy Advisor Vytautas Leškevičius examines the challenges facing NATO’s deterrence strategy and questions whether the Alliance’s persistent emphasis on avoiding escalation risks undermining its own ability to respond effectively – while encouraging Moscow to escalate further.
Read full article here.