On September 29, the Geopolitics and Security Studies Centre organised a discussion on the parliamentary elections held in Moldova last weekend. The event was attended by Denis Cenusa, an associate expert at the Center, and moderated by Dominykas Nedzinskas, project manager at the Center.
Election results. The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which won 50.20% of the vote, secured a majority (55 seats) in parliament. The pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc, which came in second with 20.20% of the vote, will have 26 seats. The Alternativa bloc, which won 7.96% of the vote (8 seats), Our Party, which won 6.20% (6 seats), and the Democracy at Home Party (PPDA), which won 5.62% (6 seats), also entered parliament.
What was surprising?
- The final PAS results were better than predicted. The narrative of a choice between East and West that had been formed in society worked – Moldova chose a pro-European direction.
- The PPDA stood out in the elections by focusing on issues that other parties did not raise, such as the situation of farmers. This allowed the PPDA to stand out. Other parties at the time raised different issues, such as justice reform, which are not so easily understood by ordinary citizens.
The most popular Romanian political party also supported the PPDA at the time, which had narrowly lost the presidential election earlier this year. With Romanian help, the PPDA established good relations with Washington. Considering that the party was almost eliminated from the elections, it is understandable what kind of relationship with the US was established for the party to be included on the election ballots ultimately.
It is also likely that pro-Russian politician Ilan Shor “switched” votes from the Great Moldova party, which was excluded from the elections, to the Democracy at Home party.
The PPDA did not have significant resources to finance its election campaign, and its representatives were followed around the country by police officers, whom the PPDA thanked for the free PR campaign.
- Although Transnistria is considered a pro-Russian region, the PAS won 29.89% of the vote there. In Gagauzia, which is also considered pro-Russian, PAS received only 3.19% of the vote. Certain decisions made by the Moldovan government in Transnistria may have influenced these results. For example, maintenance work on the seven bridges connecting Transnistria with other regions of Moldova. The resulting traffic disruptions prevented Transnistria residents from getting to the polls smoothly. In addition, five precincts in Transnistria were moved from the security zone, located very close to the administrative border, to different locations in Chișinău and other parts of the country. There were no infrastructure or logistical obstacles in Gagauzia.
- The effectiveness of Russian disinformation campaigns and other operations was low. Good institutional preparedness (effective police work, platform monitoring) and EU/regional support worked well.
What lies ahead for Moldova?
- With more political parties entering parliament, the parliament will be more fragmented. The PAS will likely face much greater pressure from the opposition than before.
- A decision will have to be made on further integration into the EU and whether to wait for Ukraine and proceed together or to continue the accession process separately.
- One third of Moldova’s population lives in poverty, and the economic situation is poor, so economic and socio-economic issues that were not given much attention during the election campaign will be raised.
- The reintegration of the Transnistria region will also be a relevant issue. Having consolidated its position, PAS is likely to take tougher decisions on this issue.