The Geopolitics and Security Studies Center hosted the event “China and Taiwan in Europe: Rivalry Beyond the Indo-Pacific?”, presenting Raigirdas Boruta’s study on China and Taiwan’s competition in Central and Eastern Europe. The discussion focused on how the pandemic, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, and a changing geopolitical environment have reshaped the region’s approach to Beijing and Taipei since 2019.
The event featured GSSC Associate Expert and STRATA Senior Policy Analyst Raigirdas Boruta, and Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs Dr. Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cerenkova. The discussion was moderated by GSSC Senior Area Manager Simona Merkinaitė.
Presenting his study, Boruta argued that Central and Eastern Europe is operating in a significantly altered geopolitical environment, in which partnerships with non-EU actors are increasingly assessed not only in terms of economic potential, but also through their implications for security, political resilience, and long-term dependencies. In his view, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the contrast between China’s and Taiwan’s approaches to the region, while Russia’s war against Ukraine further strengthened the importance of the security dimension in regional foreign policy decisions.
The discussion underlined that China–Taiwan competition in Central and Eastern Europe is not a classic contest over diplomatic recognition. Rather, it is a competition over political visibility, influence, operating formats, and the limits of partnership. Boruta stressed that China and Taiwan operate under asymmetrical conditions in the region: for Beijing, it remains a politically sensitive but secondary arena, while for Taipei it offers an opportunity to expand international visibility and widen its room for diplomatic manoeuvre.
Dr. Berzina-Cerenkova noted that one of the main strengths of Boruta’s study lies in its systemic approach, allowing for a comparison of how both actors engage the same region. In her assessment, Taiwan’s approach has long been shaped by two main pillars — shared values and expectations of economic cooperation. At the same time, experience has shown that overly strong economic expectations can lead to disappointment, making the dimension of shared challenges increasingly important, including societal resilience, preparedness for hybrid threats, and information security.
Special attention was given to the Lithuanian case. The discussion highlighted that Lithuania represented a significant symbolic breakthrough for Taiwan, while also demonstrating that achieving a diplomatic breakthrough is only one part of the process — turning it into a sustainable long-term partnership is equally important. From China’s perspective, the Lithuanian case stood out because the response involved not only economic, but also diplomatic and informational measures.
Looking at the broader regional context, the speakers also discussed the significance of the former “17+1” format. According to Dr. Berzina-Cerenkova, the format revealed not only China’s interest in the region, but also the way Beijing viewed Central and Eastern Europe — often in overly simplified terms, without fully accounting for differences among countries or for the political cohesion of the European Union.
Read the full Raigirdas Boruta study China and Taiwan Competition in Central and Eastern Europe: Foreign Policy Shifts and Implementation Limits (2019–2025) here.